It is predicted that the number of global air passengers will gradually recover from this year and exceed the level before COVID-19 (2019) by 2024.
According to the aviation industry on the 5th, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced the global air passenger demand forecast on the 1st.
IATA estimates that 4 billion travelers will be using flights by 2024. This is higher than in 2019, before COVID-19.
“Despite the recent spread of Omicron, the flow of passenger recovery has not changed,” said IATA Secretary General Willy Walsh.
Last year, the number of global flight passengers was 47% of 2019. IATA expects this year to recover to 83% from 2019 and to 94% next year. In 2024, it is expected to improve to the level of 103% in 2019 and to 111% in 2025.
IATA added that this forecast is more positive than the forecast announced in November last year, and that it is premised on easing entry regulations and travel regulations by country.
In particular, the North Atlantic and European markets are expected to show a marked improvement. In the Asia-Pacific region, it is expected that the recovery will be delayed as regulations in China, the largest aviation market, continue.
IATA said the figures did not take into account the impact of the Russian-Ukraine conflict. The impact of this incident on the long-term growth of the air transport market is expected to be limited.
However, it explained that fluctuations in energy prices and changes to routes bypassing Russian airspace could have a wide range of effects in the short term, such as air operation costs. Prior to COVID-19, Russia ranked 11th in the global aviation market, and Ukraine ranked 48th.